When Boris Johnson turned his back on the country of his birth and gave up his US passport a few years ago, he probably thought that would be the last time he had to choose between America and Europe.
George MagnusPeter Mandelson in the ST today insists Trump is wrong on China, says ‘Much better to try to influence China as a trade partner, going with the grain of its economic reforms and encouraging responsibility within the international system’. But....
George MagnusIf China and US can’t pull back a bit to rebuild some new engagement based on commerce, where they’re intertwined, this geopolitical crisis is going to get worse. China needs want trade war to go away and it’ll bring on US recession ft.com/content/6d0534… via @financialtimes
The flow of doom-mongering books about China has lately become more like a tidal wave. Whatever their strengths, recent contributions also tell a compelling – and seemingly timeless – story about how Western observers’ assumptions shape their...
George MagnusSteve has his own well known views of course but here is reviewing Red Flags along with latest books by Elizabeth Economy and Nick Lardy. Selling China Short by Stephen S. Roach - Project Syndicate
George MagnusAs China’s econ slowdown evidence gathers, unempl, officially 3.8%, and labour conditions are going to become a more sig issue for mkts & policymakers. The un rate may have been 8-9% before slowdown started. Medium length blog post to explain/explore.
Xiang Songzuo, December 28, 2018 On Dec. 16, Prof. Xiang Songzuo (向松祚) of Renmin University School of Finance and former chief economist of China Agriculture Bank, gave a 25-minute speech du…
George MagnusRemarkable, strongly rec speech/essay by Prof. Xiang Songzao of Renmin Uni, subsequently censored over Chinese i-net. The latest in the outburst of dissent by Chinese intellectuals. A Great Shift Unseen Over the Last Forty Years
Economist George Magnus unpicks the trade wars and deals re-shaping the global economy
George MagnusNext Tuesday on BBC Radio 4 - Does Trade Matter? A programme in which I’ll ask trenchant questions about trade, solicit some interesting opinions, and offer sober conclusions
George MagnusReminders that today at 11am I’m asking on BBC Radio 4 - Does Trade Matter? Rhetorical, but hear the arguments and interviews. Repeated next Monday evening and of course accessible online
George MagnusHow fast is China rebalancing? Easy answer is not nearly as rapidly as you sometimes hear. Look here for the IMF's just published view imf.org/en/Publication…. Once you allow for PPI inflation in 2016-17 which was a shot in the arm to nominal rebalancing and deleveraging... n/1
China is sitting on a minefield of collateralised loans, with a third of the 4.5 trillion yuan of pledged shares almost at forced liquidation levelsThe 33 per cent plunge in the Shenzhen Composite Index this year has wiped out 7.6 trillion yuan
George MagnusRemarkable story, basically about reverse privatisation in Xi’s China. Most of the 3500 listed companies listed on 2 major exchanges pledged shares as collateral for loans cos banks prefer SOEs. Stock slump has hit them hard. 1/n sc.mp/2ylCbL2 via @SCMPNews
George Magnus says America’s new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada contains two provisions – limiting currency manipulation and trade with a ‘non-market economy’ – drafted with China in mind, and could be used as a template for future accords
George MagnusThe US wants to try and contain China by using not only tariffs but also trade agreements as the NAFTA replacement reveals. Can these succeed? My @SCMPNews piece