The US became the ‘arsenal of democracy’ by producing a massive amount of military goods that raised real GDP by 72% between 1940 and 1945. Yet, multiplier estimates for this expansion in government
Linda YuehDefence spending rose from 1.4% of GDP in 1940 to >37% in 1945; deficit rose from 3% of GDP in 1939 to 27.5% in 1943.
Civilian unemployment rates fell: 9.5% in 1940 to <2% from 1943-1945.
Real avg GDP reached wartime peak that was 67% higher than in 1940.
Linda YuehMoody’s has lowered the UK’s credit outlook to negative (all 3 major credit rating agencies have a negative outlook), saying Brexit “paralysis” has made policymaking less predictable
UK sovereign debt at risk of a downgrade in the event of a no-deal Brexit
France is ready to send Britain crashing out of the European Union unless Labour and the Commons agree to a general election or ratify Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. Britain and the EU are nearing...
Linda YuehUK & EU are nearing the brink of no-deal after Macron blocked an extension to Brexit & preparations began for Oct 30 emergency summit.
Times: source warned a delay to Brexit beyond Thursday was “not a given” unless there was new political movement in UK
Over the last five decades, middle-wage jobs diminished in the US as wage inequality increased. This column investigates the relationship between these two phenomena, and finds no evidence that
Linda YuehOver last 5 decades, middle-wage jobs diminished in the US as wage inequality increased. Research finds no evidence that either computerisation or automation (often cited as a source of both trends) produced employment polarisation or more wage inequality.
Linda YuehMPs can now try to amend Brexit Withdrawal agt during its passage through parliament, eg “confirmatory referendum”. Before passage of Letwin amendment, if MPs tried to change Brexit deal PM could say he'd pull withdrawal agt & leave with no deal on Oct 31
Linda YuehEU & UK reach #BrexitDeal
N Ireland would apply EU’s customs/tariffs rules so no major customs checks on the island & all goods will be checked in Great Britain.
Similar to NI-only backstop agreed by PM May before the all-UK backstop rejected by parliament
Linda YuehFT: leaked government document written by civil servants at DEFRA suggests the US is likely to press UK to relax measures to protect humans, animals, plants from disease, pests, contaminants ahead of finalising a trade deal. Could complicate Irish border.
Productivity growth in southern Europe has been lower than in other developed countries. The column argues that this has in large part been caused by slow adoption of information technology,
Linda YuehSince mid 1990s productivity growth in southern Europe has been much lower. Between 1995-2015, productivity grew by 1.1% per year in Germany, and by 1.4% per year in the US, but by 0.5% per year in Portugal and only 0.1% per year in Italy and Spain. voxeu.org/article/it-rev…pic.twitter.com/1Kqx8uFFbO
Hold your nose. The era of the deskless office is about to begin.
Linda YuehStudy of people who switched from individual cubicles to open office plan found there wasn't more collaboration after switch but less. Participants spent:
73% less time in face-to-face interactions
67% more time on email
75% more time on instant messenger
The US and Argentina were the two most common destinations for Italian migrants in the early 20th century. But their experiences as immigrants in each country differed widely. Italians in Argentina
Linda YuehUS & Argentina were the 2 most common destinations for Italian migrants in early 20th century. But Italians in Argentina became homeowners & less likely to be employed as unskilled labourers than they were in US where they had uncommonly low family incomes
During the recent financial crises, government guarantees helped reduce the funding costs of banks by providing them with insurance, thus curbing panic in banking systems and financial markets. This
Linda YuehEmpirical results suggest that the spread in equity returns between high deposit-to-GDP portfolios of banks and low deposit-to-GDP portfolios of banks is very large, as it can amount to as much as 11% per annum
Since 2005, productivity growth in the US and Europe has dipped below 1%. Using new industry-level from the US and ten EU countries, this column shows that that the industrial composition of the
Linda YuehThe speedup of US productivity growth from 1.25 percentage points per year in 1972-1995 to 2.17 points in 1995-2005 is commonly attributed to widespread adoption of PCs, internet, other info & communications technology (ICT) voxeu.org/article/indust…
(More in @greateconomists book)
Linda YuehBoris admits quick US trade deal "within a year" will be a challenge & that some sectors of the UK economy would be off-limits in any UK-US trade deal; UK official said Trump acknowledged in the meeting the NHS would not form part of US-UK trade agreement
Linda YuehFrance says no-deal UK exit from EU is most likely outcome; French official added to that a no-deal #Brexit did not mean the UK could avoid its billions of euros of financial obligations arising from its departure
Linda Yueh uncovers the trend of Africans moving to live in China
Linda YuehI present @bbcworldservice The Documentary ‘When Africa meets China’ produced by the talented @RajeevGuptaBBC
Listen at 14:00 today (that's for the UK, there are different broadcast times), again later this week or online or download the podcast