Labor strife, pressure on the Fed, a sharp rise in oil prices, but without stagflation and other key elements.
Neil IrwinGM workers on strike! The president strongarming the Fed! Oil prices spiking!
It may be the early 1970s all over again in the economic headlines, but the details show why the actual risks are different this time around.
Amid the desert orgies, Paul Romer investigates a provocative question: Is this bacchanal a model of urban planning?
Neil IrwinWhat happens when a Nobel-winning economist visits the drug-fueled utopian anarchy of Burning Man?
You get the most delightful fish-out-of water story you'll ever read, and along the way learn profound lessons about how civilizations develop and advance.
Neil IrwinIt was such a bizarre day of econ news that it won't get as much attention as it should, but Mark Carney's speech on the hazards dollar dominance creates for the world may turn out to be the most important thing that happened in global economics today.
The freeze-up in business confidence, caused in part by the trade war, could wind up affecting consumer confidence.
Neil IrwinThere won't necessarily be a recession in 2020. But if there is, this is how it will happen.
In short: a capital spending downturn spurred by the trade war and global forces, exacerbated by high corporate debt and inadequate government response.
Neil Irwin“You could get a widespread fiscal response to a recession,” said @economistmeg. “That would be really nice, but I’d also like a unicorn for my birthday.”
How the recession of 2020 could happen
A bet by investors that the future will be worse than the present.
Neil IrwinFun with sports gambling/bond market analogies:
The yield curve is signaling that the United States economy is like the New England Patriots: Strong this year, but likely to fade in the decade ahead.
A search for historical parallels offers both reassurance and angst.
Neil IrwinIn August 1998, Russia defaulted, East Asia was in crisis, and Long Term Capital was on the verge of going bust.
If this August of financial turmoil turns out similarly, it's actually the best case scenario.
Neil IrwinFinancial markets often wobble in August. Maybe it's lack of liquidity because traders are on vacation; maybe it's coincidence. Either way, it's happening again in 2019.
The big question: Is this more like August 1998, or August 2007?