Perry Bacon Jr.
Political Writer at @FiveThirtyEight. Send ([email protected]) tips, feedback, stories you would like me to pursue. Would love to hear from you.
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The Issues That Divide People Within Each Party
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week There is no shortage of issues that divide Democrats and Republicans — the presidentia…
Is Impeachment More Popular Because Of Ukraine? Or Because Voters Are Sheep?
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week Public support for impeaching President Trump has gone up significantly over the last t…
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Perry Bacon Jr.
Democrats adding justices to the Court is unpopular right now. It might remain so. But it's worth recalling what happened with impeachment. Polls showed it was unpopular, Dem leaders embraced it, basically all Dem voters then did and it was a 50/50 issue. fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-im… pic.twitter.com/Qgu2BcDYLy
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What to Do About GOP Bad Faith After Trump | Crooked Media
After Trump, there must be a reckoning for the Republican Party's wholesale embrace of bad faith. Here's what that might look like.
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Perry Bacon Jr.
.@brianbeutler has written about the Republican Party more presciently than just about anyone over the last four years and really the last decade. He puts it all together here. A must-read piece.
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Why The Amy Coney Barrett Hearings Are Verging On The Absurd
In her first day of questioning from senators, Supreme Court nominee Amy Comey Barrett wouldn’t say how she would rule on abortion cases. Or Obamacare cases. Or…
Why Democratic Senate Candidates Are Competitive in Red States Like Alaska, Kansas and Montana
Democrats have a relatively clear path to securing a majority in the U.S. Senate: Win seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina — all states where t…
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Perry Bacon Jr.
Democrats have an outside chance of winning Senate seats in traditionally-red Montana, Kansas and Alaska. We took a close look at those races here.
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How Did Lindsey Graham End Up In Such A Close Race?
Recent polls of the U.S. Senate race in South Carolina have found third-term Sen. Lindsey Graham effectively tied in his contest against Democrat Jaime Harrison…
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Perry Bacon Jr.
We took a detailed look at how and why Jaime Harrison is basically tied in the polls against Lindsey Graham. A big part of the story is not about the candidates, but simply that South Carolina isn't that red in the first place.
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What McGrath v. McConnell Tells Us About Kentucky, What the Last Week Tells Us About Louisville
Amy McGrath seems very likely to lose to Mitch McConnell. (She is down by either 7, 12 or 15 percentage points, according to recent polls----but those surveys all show her losing.) And she has not run a particularly strong campaign---McGrath has not...
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Perry Bacon Jr.
Amy McGrath started out with way more hype than Jaime Harrison, but will likely do worse. Harrison may be a much better candidate than McGrath. But I think the stronger case is that KY is much more red/pro-Trump than SC (so McGrath is in a harder race).
140d
David Frum on why Republicans chose Trumpocracy over democracy
"The Republican Party has a platform that can’t prevail in democratic competition."
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Perry Bacon Jr.
The Mike Lee comments reminded me of something @davidfrum said in 2018 to @seanilling. vox.com/2018/1/18/1688… pic.twitter.com/pbvQMpdtEX
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At Pentagon, Fears Grow That Trump Will Pull Military Into Election Unrest
Defense Department officials said top generals could resign if Mr. Trump ordered the active-duty military into the streets to quell election protests.
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Perry Bacon Jr.
Military leaders, through semi-coded speeches and anonymous leaks, declaring they will not support the sitting president using the military to stay in power. To quote @BrendanNyhan, what would you say if you saw this in another country?
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The Partisan, Gender and Generational Differences Among Black Voters Heading Into Election Day
Graphics by Anna Wiederkehr Because most national and state polls include only a small number of Black voters, we rarely get the opportunity to take a detailed …
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Perry Bacon Jr.
.@sidney_b and I did a deep look at black voters. Most interesting dynamic is the generational differences. Older black voters are more partisan--they both like and trust the Democratic Party and dislike the GOP much more than younger black voters. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-p… pic.twitter.com/CSUxusY8WI
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Will Senate Republicans Back Trump’s Push To Fill Ginsburg’s Seat — Even If He Loses Reelection?
Two of the biggest questions in the aftermath of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death are, “Will whomever President Trump chooses to replace Ginsburg be confirme…
What Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Death Could Mean For 2020 And The Supreme Court
Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away on Friday night — a pivotal moment in the history of the nation’s highest court. Ginsburg’s death is one …
The Latest On Republican Efforts To Make It Harder To Vote
About a month ago, we laid out five ways that Republicans are making it harder to vote and more generally undermining the electoral process in 2020. We focused …
A Big Chunk of White Americans With Degrees And People Of Color Are Behind Trump
The overarching story of recent American elections is that 1) voters of color, who have long been Democratic-leaning, are a growing share of the electorate; 2) …
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Perry Bacon Jr.
More than a third of Trump's supporters in 2016 were people of color (about 10 percent) or non-Hispanic white Americans with college degrees (about 25 percent.) Those voters are largely still behind him--and that's a big reason why Trump can still win.
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What 'Law and Order' Really Means
The message is coming from all sides: it's time to bring Black people into line.
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Perry Bacon Jr.
.@jackmirkinson describes perfectly what the "Joe Biden needs a Sister Souljah moment" voices really want but can't quite directly say. discourseblog.substack.com/p/what-law-and… pic.twitter.com/JvO75fEsx0
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Could A Backlash Against Black Lives Matter Hurt Biden? The Two Don’t Appear Linked So Far.
In the wake of the police killing of George Floyd on May 25, the popularity of the Black Lives Matter movement skyrocketed. By early June, 53 percent of registe…
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Perry Bacon Jr.
That said, as BLM has embraced more controversial goals and tactics, so far that has decreased the movement's support with the public, but not affected the electoral process much. Biden led by 6 in national polls in early June, 8 now. fivethirtyeight.com/features/could… twitter.com/perrybaconjr/s…
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The Kamala Coalition
It’s difficult to imagine Democrats nominating two white men for president and vice president ever again.
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Perry Bacon Jr.
I've read a lot of Harris pieces and wrote one myself, but unsurprisingly the best was @RonBrownstein's.
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Kamala Harris Is Biden’s VP Pick — Here’s What It Means For The Election And Beyond
Former Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden announced Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate today. Here’s a look at what this choice mea…
Why Democrats Need to Play to Win in Texas
What happens in Texas this fall will impact politics for a decade
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Perry Bacon Jr.
Learned a lot from this @danpfeiffer piece arguing that Dems (but not necessarily the Biden campaign) should really invest in Texas this cycle (more to shape outcomes in the nation's 2nd-biggest state than to win 270.)
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Five Ways Trump And GOP Officials Are Undermining The Election Process
There has long been conflict in the United States over who gets to vote and how. In the years since Barack Obama’s election as president, those voting debates h…