Robin Hanson"probability of being stopped/arrested when driving while intoxicated is extremely low, < 0.01 to 0.02 at most, further reduced by probability of conviction/sentencing following stop/arrest far below 1."
Robin Hanson"white officers use force 60% more than black officers, & use gun force 2x as often … white & black … use gun force at similar rates in white & racially mixed neighborhoods, white officers are 5x as likely to use gun force in predominantly black [areas]"
Supporters say coding know-how is good for students and society in an increasingly digital world. Opponents say public schools shouldn’t be turned into job-training sites for tech companies.
Robin HansonA bad burden of proof: "Some critics say there is no research proving that learning to code carries such benefits. But I’m not aware of any research showing that each & every thing taught in [other classes] offers more benefit than coding"
Critics say false positives are far higher for some groups of people than for others, but supporters of the technology says the actual numbers involved are tiny.
Robin Hanson"These systems are biased in how they work and how they are deployed, and they are often created and implemented in obscurity, without public review or full accountability under the law." Uh, that's how most ALL systems happen.
The president uses his authority to muscle business and suppress dissent.
Robin Hanson"This smells bad. Behind the scenes it’s even worse, as 'the law' is used to spread terror among opponents. A key tool is the Financial Intelligence Unit … [which] is being used to gain control of institutions that ought to be independent."
It’s now clear that the coronavirus epidemic was never going to be contained. What’s next?
Robin Hanson"As chilling as it is to imagine this scenario, what happened in Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicenter of the outbreak, will likely play out elsewhere, too. Hospitals might have to turn away all but the people most seriously ill."
Political hobbyism is to public affairs what watching SportsCenter is to playing football.
Robin Hanson"Unlike organizers… political hobbyists are disproportionately college-educated white men. They learn about and talk about big important things. … [praised as] more evolved, less self-interested… In reality, political hobbyists have harmed… democracy"
In the age of heavily restricted migration, passport control seems a natural prerogative of the state. The idea of abolishing passports is almost unthinkable. But in the 20th century, governments considered their “total abolition” as an important...
Robin Hanson"In 1914, warring states of France, Germany, & Italy were the first to make passports mandatory, a measure rapidly followed by … Spain, Denmark, & Switzerland. At the end of the war, the regime of obligatory passports was widespread."
Bong Joon-ho delivers defiant strangeness once again.
Robin Hanson"In a perceptive essay, the eccentric libertarian Robin Hanson has described Parasite as 'about class conflict from an upper class perspective,' whereas Joker is 'about class conflict from a lower class perspective.' This seems right" says @DouthatNYT
Robin HansonWe don't like to notice plot holes in fav stories, if others don't notice, as we coordinate to like the same stories. As we also coordinate to share blame templates, we also don't like to notice or act on "holes" in our simplified blame templates.
Some AI researchers are beginning to wonder if the AI industry might be guilty of overpromising in order to attract consumer and investor interest, and underplaying how hard it will be to recreate the full range of human intelligence in a machine.
Robin Hanson"some AI researchers are beginning to wonder if the AI industry might be guilty of overpromising in order to attract consumer and investor interest" Er, that's a HUGE understatement.
(featured image: NIAID CC BY and withvengeance86 CC BY) We can catch a virus on a trolley, but there is another connection – or why we sometimes must think the unthinkable The coronavirus, in the m…
Robin Hanson"Hanson has received not just reasoned criticism for his idea, but also insults &… threats… simply for what is effectively thinking the unthinkable… many… did not actually read the blogpost, & many… objections contain no argument, simply a dismissal"
I had not known of this important piece. From 2012, by Robert D. Woodberry, at the National University of Singapore: This article demonstrates historically and statistically that conversionary Protestants (CPs) heavily inﬂuenced the rise and spread...
Robin HansonWow: "historic prevalence of Protestant missionaries explains about half the variation in democracy in Africa, Asia, Latin America and Oceania and removes the impact of most variables that dominate current statistical research about democracy." @MargRev
Robin Hanson@kevin2kelly Sure, but Long Bets only allows bets of even odds, with winnings go to a charity of one's choice, you tax half the investment growth of the stakes, and there is no market, just pairwise bets. Not sure what's the point.