Thread by @trvrb: Daily #COVID19 case counts are increasing in the US and we seem to hitting a third wave (or second surge if you'd prefer). Here I wanted to look at how case counts through time correlate...…
Trevor BedfordAcross these three states, this lagged correlation is maximized at a 20 day reporting lag between cases and deaths. This 20 day reporting lag fits expectations from other sources (cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr…). 8/16
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.
Trevor BedfordThe @CDCgov seroprevalence survey (cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…) tests blood samples from different sites in the US for COVID-19 antibodies. With a serosurvey, it's possible to look at the path of the epidemic in a broader fashion than what's available from PCR assay results. 2/13
We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections,
deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world.
Trevor Bedford@leonidkruglyak I think so. Rather than continuing to die out the epidemic is slowly burning with ~750 cases per day and perhaps ~50k people currently infected (covid19-projections.com/us-ny). These aren't going to zero, hence Rt~1. Rather than community spread, consider it as pockets of transmission.
Up-to-date values for Rt — the number to watch to measure COVID spread.
Trevor BedfordInstead, we can reasonably reliably estimate Rt two to three weeks back. Here, I'm plotting Rt through time for Florida, Texas, Arizona and New York from mid-April to July 1. Rt values were taken directly from rt.live. 4/15 pic.twitter.com/1LGhJu6Hlo
Trevor BedfordApproaches like epiforecasts.io/covid/ and rt.live estimate Rt from confirmed case data. Critically, due to disease incubation period, delays in seeking testing and delays in test reporting, we don't know what Rt is at the very moment. 3/15
Trevor BedfordMore concerning is the course that the rest of the country seems to be on. rt.live shows early July Rt greater than 1 in 42 states, with many apparently on a similar trajectory to AZ, TX, FL, just lagged by some weeks relative to those that opened earlier. 14/15 pic.twitter.com/A1zpXrYqUK
CDC is responding to the novel (new) coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Trevor BedfordHowever, given what know about severity vs age, we really want to understand what's going on across different age groups. After digging around, the only source I could find that splits confirmed cases by age through time is @CDCgov's COVIDView (cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…). 5/10
Superspreading events have characterised previous epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infections. Using contact tracing data, we identified and...
Yu Wang, Huaiyu Tian, et al. Reduction of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in households by face mask use, disinfection and social distancing: a cohort …
Trevor BedfordA known potential exposure event makes self-quarantine a good strategy for reducing onward spread. Household transmission is a risk; this study found mask wearing and hygiene within a household to strongly reduce secondary household transmission (gh.bmj.com/content/5/5/e0…). 5/7
Businesses are reopening. Protests are erupting nationwide. But the virus isn’t done with us.
Trevor Bedford2. The protests and potential to transmit virus are on a background of general societal opening. It feels as though we've largely given up on controlling the epidemic and have resigned ourselves to living alongside it. 9/11
Thread by @trvrb: The appalling killing of George Floyd and video after video after video of police brutality cements the elemental *rightnesf the Black Lives Matter cause. 1/21 Since January, I've striven to provide as complete an accounting of the...